How to win with over/under bets? Which key points do you need to keep on your mind while making your choices? We’re hoping that this article will help you to get more experienced with over/under bets, and be more confident with your bets. The more confident you are, the more profit you’ll get when you combine it with the best betting agent.
Last Week Does Not Mean Anything
The current form of the teams is important, but not the most important thing. Especially, if it’s about beating the odds. We often see people who take the last 3 weeks of a team as a reference. Yes, a club might score a lot of goals and get a lot of points for the last couple of weeks or matches, but does it really give you an exact prediction of team’s scoring abilities? Actually, no. In order to find out this, you need to think further and get into more details. Your researches must be long-dated. You need to take into consideration the latest 20 matches or more. This period may vary according to the sport, league, and the number and frequency of the matches.
Current form is one of the deceiving factors for beginners. And this situation gives advantage to people who give attention to the real potential of teams rather than the unstable performances that change from week to week.
Follow Events, Not Averages
This is also one thing that we encounter a lot. While collecting information for a particular match, some people take into account score averages. Averages might work while we’re analyzing a less unstable and a big example. The problem lies within that: Even with an example of 15 matches, one uncommon result will destroy the average.
Let’s say that two of these 15 matches resulted in high scores, such as 4-2 and 5-1 which is 12 goals in total. It will affect the average largely. Other 13 matches’ average will be 2.53. Betting over 2.5 goals seemed like a good opportunity before, but it suddenly became less attractive. So, taking averages is good for big examples but following the events is usually the best option.
Look at how many times a team has exceeded and stayed under a particular goal limit. For example, let’s take Arsenal as an example. 3 goals per 15 home matches seem good. However, the real number of how many times Chelsea has exceeded over 2.5 goals may be under 50%. It’s possible that Chelsea might have even scored over 2.5 goals in just 7 matches.
Even though the average goals per match is 3, but the frequency of this event is very little, would you still feel comfortable while betting for over? Probably not.
Don’t Make Exotic Choices
Don’t try to be very clever. Continue your over/under bets with 2.5 or whatever is “reasonable”. It’s usually 2 or 3, depending on the league of the teams. A betting company can certainly put the odds at 5.00 for over 4.5 goals. However, such companies, which offer odds for extraordinary goals option like this one, usually try to get more from the average commission.
We are hoping that we were able to give you another perspective to look at over/under bets. Betting is an enormous world, and there’s always something waiting to be discovered. We’re here to help you with the exploration. You have to build your knowledge on a secured foundation. It means that you need to choose among the bookies with the best odds and limits, which are also solid and trustable.